...or is it History in the Making?

So my previous blog post proved to be relatively close in terms of Conservative seats won (I was only 6 out, and possibly only 5 if the last remaining seat stays Tory, as is expected).

But I was clearly wrong when I suggested that history was repeating. Having been aged -1 at the time of the last hung parliament, what is currently happening this week in Westminster is, for me, history in the making. And I'm loving it.

Just this evening, we have seen (i) the PM resign, (ii) the possibility of the (to some extent) assumed Tory/Lib Dem coalition being thrown into disarray by (iii) the now possible Labour/Lib Dem coalition being offered. And then (iv) the Tories hang out an Alternative Vote Referendum carrot. If you turn off, you'll miss something. And I'm still recovering from having little sleep on election night.

The great irony is that it is Nick Clegg's Lib Dems, who came third in the election, and who lost seats rather than gained any new ones, who will now ultimately decide when and how this ends. Nick Clegg is the politician who now has all the power in Westminster at the moment, even though that will immediately end once he chooses in which direction he will turn his party. My view is that it should be towards the Conservatives, for fear of business only being possible with some almighty (and therefore unmanageable) coalition of Labour, Lib Dem, Scottish and Welsh Nationalists, Greens and the DUP.

Meanwhile, the age of 24 hour news coverage is coming into its own. Many times I have railed against Sky News, but the effect of actually now having enough newsworthy events to (probably for the first time) fill a rolling news program for several continuous hours has shown them to be woefully not up to the job. Just in the last two days we have had this...

Then half an hour later (and as a direct result) came this....

And then the normally unflappable, albeit a little pompous Adam Boulton (Sky's answer to David Dimbleby), although probably a little tired after goodness knows how many continuous days of work, showed his true colours with this 'debate' with Alastair Campbell.

I'll admit on this occasion, that you wouldn't see these kind of things on the BBC. The Guardian summed it all up well here.

Great stuff.

It's all just a little bit of History Repeating

5 minutes until polls close. The excitement of an election night is, I think partially due to the fact that it happens relatively infrequently. Probably only 3 or 4 times in my material living memory. 1997 was a good one. Since then, our presence in the UAE has made it logistically more difficult to follow the UK coverage (always BBC by the way!), but this year I am making a special effort despite the time difference.

But I am always sceptical of the ability of so many millions of people to really understand what they are voting for. The parties it seems are today so close together in understanding what needs to be done (fix the economy, end the war in Afghanistan, improve education standards and the NHS, cut crime) but is it really possible for a collection of clearly intellectual men to be so far apart in how best to fix those problems? I think not. Every time you hear one of them say that the others' policies are going to lead to fewer policemen on the street, higher numbers of illegal immigrants, I'm afraid I just don't believe it. Because I know the "other" would immediately dispute such an accusation.

As such, I am increasingly of the view that the election is won or lost purely on the charisma and leadership personality of the party leaders. Tony Blair looked like a statesman. Especially when compared with the drab John Major. Now, 13 years later, David Cameron against Gordon Brown seems like deja vu.

So who is your money on. It's 10pm in the UK, Dimbleby is in charge. I say Cameron edges it by a whisker with 311 seats. But not quite enough to form a government alone. Which will cause Gordon Brown to resign over the weekend once the Daily Mail has sharpened its knives during the course of tomorrow. We shall see...